Question
In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oil. Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert heating systems from oil to natural gas. Malvernia currently produces more natural gas each year than it uses, and oil production in Malvernian oil fields is increasing at a steady pace. If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, therefore, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.
Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in evaluating the argument?
(Because of copyrights, the complete official question is not copied here. You can access the question here: GMAT Club)
Difficulty: Medium
Accuracy: 77%
Based on: 7854 sessions
Solution
In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oil.Â
Ok, so probably the country doesn’t (or will not) rely heavily on imported oil anymore.
Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert heating systems from oil to natural gas.Â
Recently the country implemented a program to shift heating systems from oil to natural gas. This could be a reason for why the country’s reliance on oil would have reduced (or will reduce).Â
Malvernia currently produces more natural gas each year than it uses, and oil production in Malvernian oil fields is increasing at a steady pace.Â
Currently there is an excess supply of Natural gas.Â
Also, domestic oil production is increasing steadily. (another reason for why oil imports might go down)
If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, therefore, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.Â
This is in line with my understanding thus far.
What trends?
- Production of natural gas > usage of natural gas
- Domestic oil production continues to increase steadily
If these trends continue, the country’s need to import fuel will likely go down. (I notice they are talking about importing fuel in general, and not just oil.)
This statement is the main point of the argument. The main point is not simply that the country’s reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.The main point is that if these trends continue, then the reliance will likely decline soon.
Gaps in logic
- The argument is assuming that demand for oil by other systems will not increase. What if some other systems (not heating related), e.g. cars, need more oil, and for that the country needs to continue to import at the current levels?
- The argument is about oil consumption and oil imports, but the argument jumps to ‘reliance on foreign sources for fuel’. So, what if the country increases import of some other fuel?
Question Stem
Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in evaluating the argument?Â
I have come up with two gaps above. There could be others too. I’ll look for an answer choice that will make me more informed about whether the country’s reliance on foreign fuel is likely to decline soon.
Answer choice analysis
Answer Choice: A
Incorrect
Selected by: 6%
What could be a sample answer to this question?Â
Say, 10 years.Â
Domestic oil production will surpass natural gas production in 10 years.Â
How does knowing this figure help us evaluate the argument? This information has no impact. The argument is about reducing the country’s reliance on foreign fuel. How the country’s oil production compares with its natural gas production is not relevant. The heating systems are supposed to be converted from oil to natural gas. A comparison of domestic production of oil versus natural gas and a timeline of when oil production might outstrip natural gap production doesn’t help.
Not useful.
Answer Choice: B
Incorrect
Selected by: 2%
Let’s take the two possible answers and check their impact one by one.
i. Yes, the country is one of the top importers of oil.
What impact does this information have on the argument?
None.Â
The conclusion is that the country’s ‘reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.’ So, that is a comparison of future imports with current imports. Even if the country currently imports a lot of oil, are imports likely to decline?Â
Say the country imports a very large amount of oil currently – 1 BILLION barrels of oil per year. Is the quantity likely to decline? The answer to that question will depend on what the country is doing to reduce imports (e.g.domestic production, shifting from oil to natural gas, etc), and not what the quantity of imports is.
ii. No, the country is not one of the top importers of oil.
Say the country imports a not-so-large amount of oil currently – 100,000 barrels of oil per year. Again for the reasons I have mentioned above, this quantity also does not tell us about whether imports will decline.Â
Not useful.
Answer Choice: C
Incorrect
Selected by: 4%
i. Say, 20%
ii. Say, 80%
Does either of these figures have any impact on the argument?
No.Â
Whether the current proportion is low (~20%) or high (~80%), we don’t learn anything about whether fuel imports will decline.
Not useful.
Had the answer choice been:
Is the domestic production of hydroelectric, solar and nuclear power increasing?
That answer choice would have been helpful. If the domestic production of other energy sources is increasing, then perhaps fuel imports will decline.
If it is not, then perhaps fuel imports will not decline.
Answer Choice: D
Correct
Selected by: 77%
This answer choice essentially will help me understand whether the consumption (demand) of oil is increasing. It is in line with the first gap I mentioned earlier.
i. If the amount of oil used each year (for the mentioned purposes) is increasing, I believe less than I did before in the claim that fuel imports will likely decline soon.
ii. If the amount of oil used each year is not increasing, my confidence goes up in the argument. Then I believe more in the claim that fuel imports will probably decline.
Keep in mind, we are looking for an answer choice that will be useful to evaluate the argument. So, even if I am not 100% clear about the situation after getting this new information, that’s fine. As long as the information is useful, I’m good. This answer choice is useful.
Answer Choice: E
Incorrect
Selected by: 11%
According to the passage, the program to convert the systems from oil to natural gas has already been implemented. How far along they are in the execution of the program is immaterial.
Let’s take cases:
i. Yes, at least one system has been converted
What impact does this information have on the argument?
None.
Even if some systems have been converted, I am not any closer to figuring out whether fuel imports will decline.
ii. No, no systems have been converted yet
What impact does this information have on the argument?
None.
The program was recently implemented. So, even if the execution has not started yet, it does not tell me about how successful the program will be.Â
If you have any doubts regarding any part of this solution, please feel free to ask in the comments section.

Anish Passi
GMAT Coach
With over a decade of GMAT training experience, top 1 percentile scores on the CAT and GMAT, and a passion for teaching, I’d like to believe I am quite qualified to be a GMAT coach. GMAT is learnable, and I help students master the GMAT through a process-oriented approach based on logic and common sense. I offer private tutoring and live-online classroom courses. My sessions are often sprinkled with real-world examples, references to movies, and jokes that only I find funny. You’ve been warned 🙂